Well, here we are. The eve of the 2013 Golden Globe award ceremony. Gotta say this year has a ton of worthy films and performances to focus on. I hardly know where to begin. On Sunday, we’re going to see which of those films and performances the Hollywood Foreign Press has chosen as the best of the best. Here’s my best take on how the Golden Globes are gonna go.
Chris Terrio – Argo
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Tony Kushner – Lincoln
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Mark Boal – Zero Dark Thirty
As my personal favorite category, I’m really hoping for Quentin Tarantino to pull a much-deserved win (one he should have gotten in 2010 for Inglorious Basterds). Unfortunately, I’m expecting a repeat of the Oscars 2010 – where Mark Boal will pull the USA! USA! win over Tarantino’s more fun form of escapism. Lincoln may be getting performance praise, but the writing is too bulky and cumbersome overall. “Silver Linings Playbook” is a solid possibility if the Foreign Press decides to lean towards feel-good wins. But considering how typical dark quality tends to win out in this category over comedies or action thrillers, I’m thinking it’s Mark Boal’s game to lose. While I personally think Tarantino’s script is the best of the bunch, Zero Dark Thirty feels like an easier – albeit far less deserving – choice for the Foreign Press.
Who Will Win: Mark Boal
Who Should Win: Quentin Tarantino
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – The Master
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy
There is absolutely no contest here. Nobody holds a candle to Anne Hathaway’s utterly heartrending turn as Fantine is the mountain no other nominee can possibly climb. Plus, the other nominees (outside of Helen Hunt) didn’t get into this category with performances that rank anywhere near their best. Hathaway is beyond good and I can’t think of a single nominee this year who deserves a Golden Globe more than her.
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin – Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
If you had asked me in November, I would have said Phillip Seymour Hoffman was the major one to beat. Since then, though, Hoffman seems to have dropped off as a heavyweight. Of the other four, I think this is going to come down to Jones, DiCaprio, and Waltz. Now considering the award circuit loves when actors try something different, It appears that Waltz has more clout than DiCaprio considering all the awards given out to Waltz already. I’m not sure I understand this, as Waltz seems to basically be playing the ‘hero’ version of the same character he played in Inglorious Basterds and DiCaprio (who has never been a villain) plays an antagonist so deliciously and emphatically. DiCaprio’s Calvin Candie is one of the best written and most fantastically acted villains of the year. But unfortunately, can’t argue with statistics. Of the two, Waltz will most likely get it. Now Waltz does have some serious competition in Tommy Lee Jones, as Jones’ curmudgeon of a Congressman has been winning hearts with his big speeches and crazy antics. But I think the numbers show Waltz winning this nearly as easily as he won everything back in 2010, even though do I think DiCaprio gave the bolder and better performance of the year.
Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
Emily Blunt – Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith – Quartet
Meryl Streep – Hope Springs
This is a weaker category with only one major player, and that’s Jennifer Lawrence. Emily Blunt and Meryl Streep’s nominations are the most perfunctory. Maggie Smith’s a critical darling in television for her work on Downton Abbey, but I doubt even her sterling position as an actresses’ actress is enough to give her traction to beat Lawrence. Judi Dench is another delight to see anywhere, but considering a lack of push for Quartet in any other big award competitions, I don’t see her going anywhere, either. Thus, by pure process of elimination, Lawrence should pull off an easy win.
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Who Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence
BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
Jack Black – Bernie
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables
Ewan McGregor – Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson
This category comes down to two: Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman. As second-glance different as Jack Black is and as rich in detail as Bill Murray is in their prospective roles, they don’t have the popularity/talent play that Cooper and Jackman have at their disposal right now. McGregor is the nice little “well aren’t you glad to just be here” nod. This is tough, because both men do great work in their films. Cooper’s role is edgy, innovative, and hysterical. Jackman’s role is rich, honest, and heartfelt. It’s a true “comedy versus musical” competition here. The one aspect Cooper has over Jackman is his National Board of Review Best Actor award win. As of now, Jackman has nothing but Best Ensemble wins – no individual credits. I think Jackman will win purely on scope, but I wouldn’t be surprised or disappointed to see Cooper fly in for the win. Both are worthwhile.
Who Will Win: Hugh Jackman
Who Should Win: Hugh Jackman
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
Considering I’ve only seen Zero Dark Thirty and The Impossible out of this list, the rest I can only discuss their changes through current numbers. At the moment, Mirren and Weisz seem to be nominee placeholders rather than serious threats to any of the bigger players (which is something we can see by their Oscar snubs). Chastain and Watts seem to be going head-to-head for this one. As good as Cotillard always is – and it sounds like especially with this film – she’s not getting the traction. While I think Watts is absolutely breathtaking throughout The Impossible and should pull off a win, I think Chastain is the critical darling this year for Best Actress overall – I think it has to do with how epic her last few years have been in Hollywood and Zero Dark Thirty is a role worthy enough to hand the whole silver platter to her. I won’t complain at all if Chastain wins (I do think she’s the best actress overall in this category), bu I think Watts one-ups her performance wise this year.
Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain
Who Should Win: Naomi Watts
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Richard Gere –Arbitrage
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Denzel Washington – Flight
This category is packed with talent, with each of the five nominees delivering career-best performances. Lewis seems to be the safest bet considering his sterling reputation in the industry and the unanimous praise he has received for his soft-spoken portrayal as Abraham Lincoln. Washington, Hawkes, and Gere are definitely solid choices – and of those three, I’d guess Hawkes has the best shot of pulling a dark horse win considering earlier awards buzz – but I think it’s going to come down to Lewis and Phoenix. While I think Phoenix delivers a showier and more award-ready performance (whereas Lewis is more withdrawn, similarly to Gary Oldman’s Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy turn last year), I think his distaste against awards in general will play against him getting a win. Lewis is the actor the awards circuit loves to recognize.
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Ben Affleck – Argo
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Personally, I see this as Tarantino’s year. Of these nominees, Django Unchained is the strongest cinematic offering. I know many would make a case for Argo and Zero Dark Thirty, but I’m one of the few who was highly unimpressed with Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty. Ben Affleck’s Argo has the same old-school shot that The Artist had last year. I do think any of the three directors could unsurprisingly slide into the winning slot with minimal effort. Now in terms of what the industry has been pushing for, it seems like (excluding the Oscars, apparently) everyone’s in love with Affleck this year. And justifiably so – Argo is a lean, mean fighting machine of a film and Affleck gets a massive amount of credit for that. If anyone had any doubt after The Town, I think Argo cements Affleck as one of the best directors working today. Where previous awards this year are concerned, Affleck is getting the bulk of the praise. So I prefer Tarantino, but I’m biased. I do think this is Affleck’s year to win.
Who Will Win: Ben Affleck
Who Should Win: Quentin Tarantino
BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Silver Linings Playbook
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel? No. Salmon Fishing in the Yemen? Hell, no. Moonrise Kingdom? Well, it’d be nice, but… no. All three of those nominees haven’t won a single major award and I doubt they will here. No, this award is a battle between the epic musical Les Miserables and the darkly humorous drama Silver Linings Playbook. Now musicals typically don’t get enough love in any other award competition, which is why the Golden Globes specifically has a section where such deserving films can soar. As Les Miserables is one of the best musicals in the last couple decades (and I doubt we’ll see it take home the Oscar considering that award’s track record of loathing musicals), I think the Foreign Press will see themselves as the ones to recognize this fascinating achievement. It is, after all, based on one of the world’s most iconic Broadway musicals of all time. Tom Hooper is a fantastic director and pulled off a musical that feels majestic and powerful. I can’t see any drama – no matter how good – taking away the momentum of the musical this year.
Who Will Win: Les Miserables
Who Should Win: Les Miserables
BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty
So Argo versus Zero Dark Thirty. As much as I wish Django Unchained was a bigger player here, I have to face facts. If Tarantino truly has the best chance for an award, it’s going to be with the Best Supporting Actor category or maybe the Best Screenplay category. He hasn’t received anything major in terms of Best Picture love yet, and I doubt the Foreign Press will change that. Lincoln may get some play, but it looks like Lewis is the one who’s getting the most love of the film. Between Argo and Zero Dark Thirty, I think it’s the Critics’ Choice Awards that shows where the awards are leaning, and that’s Ben Affleck. As Argo is just as much of a love letter to the power of cinema as The Artist, I think the Foreign Press is looking for the same type of film to love.
Who Will Win: Argo
Who Should Win: Django Unchained
So who are your favorites to win? Who do you think was snubbed? You can watch the 70th Annual Golden Globes LIVE on NBC January 13th at 8pm EST
For a more in depth look at this year nominees check out our Geekenstein Movie Reviews
Zero Dark Thirty Review
Django Unchained Review
Cloud Atlas Review
So how did Joe do?
Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical: “Les Miserables” CORRECT!
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama: Daniel Day-Lewis for “Lincoln” CORRECT!
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama: Jessica Chastain for “Zero Dark Thirty” CORRECT!
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical:Hugh Jackman for “Les Miserables” CORRECT!
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical: Jennifer Lawrence for “Silver Linings Playbook” CORRECT!
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture: Anne Hathaway for “Les Miserables” CORRECT!
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture: Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained” CORRECT!
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture: Quentin Tarantino for “Django Unchained” WRONG!
Best Director – Motion Picture: Ben Affleck for “Argo” CORRECT!